Pentagon reveals extensive climate change concerns amid political instability

In a shocking exposé, the National Security Archive has uncovered a 2021 Pentagon report detailing the US government's deep-seated worries over climate-driven political instability across Europe and East Africa.

Whole-of-government approach to climate security

According to the classified documents, the intelligence community, Pentagon, and other US agencies were working tirelessly to develop a coordinated strategy to tackle the security threats posed by climate change.

The reports indicate that the US military was particularly concerned about the logistical damage rising sea levels could inflict on its naval operations, while the State Department was monitoring the profound political ramifications of climate change.

As the Trump administration waged an aggressive campaign to restrict public access to climate data, President Biden's executive orders ramped up efforts to combat the crisis. Just two months after signing the EO, the Pentagon conducted its first-ever climate and environmental security tabletop exercise, dubbed Elliptic Thunder.

East africa climate vignette

During the exercise, participating agencies including the DOD, State Department, NSC, USAID, National Intelligence Council, CIA, and NOAA used a typical wargame structure centered around three moves: drought and heatwaves sparking violent extremism, food insecurity and flooding due to El Niño, and extreme cyclones and cholera outbreaks.

One confidential INR assessment from the fall of 2021 identified political fissures in Europe over climate action as a growing threat. The report highlighted varying regional climatic impacts, noting that southern Europe would suffer from persistent heatwaves, drought, and wildfires, while northern Europe would see a rise in land prices due to scarcer arable land elsewhere.

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